Promising But Risks Remain

February 2007 | Economic Analysis

With political risks stabilising, abundant hydrocarbon revenues and major infrastructure projects underway, Algerian growth should remain robust over the forecast period. Real annual growth averaged 5.5% between 2002-2005, and should remain above the 4.5% y-o-y mark between 2007-2011. However, as with similarly naturally endowed states, data access remains a hindrance to a more detailed analysis. Nevertheless, estimates suggest that real GDP expansion dipped below expectations in 2006, to 3.5% y-o-y, owing to a sharp slowdown in oil production growth, which fell from 3.6% y-o-y in 2005 to 0.7% in 2006. According to BMI's oil and gas team, crude production levels

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