BDP Dominant

March 2007 | Risk Summary

We see few threats to the long-stretched rule of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), given the disarray of the opposition. Most recently, the BDP secured the majority of votes in local by-elections and come the next general elections in 2009 the odds are clearly in their favour, particularly in view of the country's first-past-the-post electoral system. While unemployment remains high, poverty is still widespread and the HIV/AIDS pandemic continues to wreak havoc, the likelihood of dramatic political ructions is low. Externally speaking, the main concern stems from the ongoing turmoil in Zimbabwe.

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