Nigeria

March 2007 | Risk Summary

Given the proximity of the general elections, there are discernible downside risks to our short term political ratings. But while there are non-negligible fears that the polls will not be fair and transparent, and concerns about gerrymandering - as reflected in the disqualification of opposition candidates on the basis of corruption - we remain relatively sanguine. However, the ongoing turmoil in the Niger delta, with a seemingly relentless continuation of kidnappings and sabotage, is a real source of concern and a sharp illustration of the challenges that faces any coming administration.

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