Yemen

March 2007 | Risk Summary

The resumption of conflict between government forces and Shi'a rebels in the northern Saada region risks inflaming Yemen's Shi'a minority and potentially denting relations with regional allies. The crisis has highlighted underlying sectarian tensions, both in Yemen and the wider region, and by turning to armed action, Saleh risks alienating Yemen's Shi'a minority, which encapsulates around 15% of the population, as civilian suffering rises. That said, the fighting appears localised, for now, and as such the conflict does not pose a risk to short-term governmental stability. In the longer term, the government's strategy risks exacerbating domestic and regional sectarian divisions.

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