Macroeconomic Forecast Morocco

April 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

The latest official data from the Moroccan Statistics Institute show a robust and resilient economy, in line with our positive outlook for the country, with real GDP growth coming in at 8.1% in 2006. Economic expansion has been boosted by 30% growth in the key agricultural sector, which employs over half the population. While we remain long term bullish on Morocco, a contraction in the agricultural sector owing to climatic conditions and a wider moderation in global growth, which could dampen export demand from key eurozone trading partners, will result in a more subdued growth rate this year. We see growth coming in at 3.2% in 2007, though depending on agricultural harvests, the risks are to the downside. That said, with parliamentary elections due in September, the likely fiscal stimulus will boost consumption and hence overall growth. The corollary inflationary pressures stemming from buoyant economic activity should subside, particularly as the critical energy prices ease, though with tensions in the Persian Gulf set to remain, the risks are to the upside.

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