A Virtual Coup

May 2007 | Risk Summary

Politics is in flux. In response to the Constitutional Court''s decision to annul the first round of the presidential election due to lack of quorum, the ruling AKP - whose foreign minister Abdullah Gul was the only candidate - has announced early parliamentary elections and proposed a constitutional amendment to have a popularly-elected president. In BMI ''s view, the AKP should emerge with a majority - albeit a diminished one - in the parliamentary election, although there is an increased chance of a coalition government. The AKP''s popularity limits political risk. However, the army''s determination to prevent a ''headscarf'' entering the presidential palace will cast a shadow over political developments until the next president and parliament are sworn in.

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