Macroeconomic Forecast Tunisia

May 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

With consistent and elevated growth for over a decade, we maintain our bullish view on the Tunisian economy, which should expand at a rate of 5% this year. This is only slightly lower than last year's impressive 5.4% growth, and reflects a somewhat more lacklustre global growth dynamics. On the other hand, inflation has continued its descent, falling to 2.5% y-o-y in March from its peaks of over 5% y-o-y last year, in line with easing oil prices. The risks here, however, are to the upside as ongoing geopolitical tensions and tight supply dynamics could mean oil prices outstripping our current US$54.5/bbl (down from US$60.8/bbl last year) expectation for the OPEC basket.

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