Inflation, Politics Risks To Long Term Growth

May 2007 | Economic Analysis

We expect Libya to remain on an elevated growth track this year, expanding at a rate of 5.2% in 2007, though slightly down from last year's estimated 6.3%. This will be on the back of strong non-oil growth of 7%, underpinned by expansionary fiscal policy - total expenditure rose by 25% last year and should increase by around 30% this year - and only modest hydrocarbon sector expansion. BMI's oil and gas team see oil production growth dipping to 0.3% this year, from 1.4% last year, being countered by still strong gas output growth at 14.3%. The key non-oil contributors

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