Political Risk - A Smoking Gun

June 2007 | Risk Summary

There have been credible reports of a failed military coup in the local press and a small number of junior ranks and officers have been charged with treason. There is no doubt that discontent within the security forces is severe, but we do not believe this was a well-planned putsch. That is not to say that the prospect is implausible, but for the time being at least senior commanders and politicians close to the military still have more to lose than gain from regime change.

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