Macroeconomic Forecast Iraq

November 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

With Brent crude projected to fetch an average of US$72.00/bbl in 2008, Iraq's hydrocarbons-based economy will continue to feel the positive medium-term impact, even if crude production levels continue to miss their targets. The Iraqi authorities have acknowledged to the IMF's Article IV team that the increase in the rate of implementation of their investment programme, including in the oil sector, will be difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, we project that oil production could increase to 2.3mn b/d in 2008, from the roughly 2.1mn b/d witnessed in 2007. This will help to propel a strong growth performance, with a further boost to 2008 oil receipts that will underpin an uptick in real GDP growth to more than 11%.

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