South Africa

January 2008 | Ratings Update

Although we maintain our core view that Jacob Zuma's recent victory of the African National Congress (ANC) presidency will not affect South Africa's long-term growth potential and political stability, we believe that risks are to the downside in the short and medium term. Firstly, we expect tensions between the Thabo Mbeki and Zuma camps within the ANC to intensify over the coming months. Secondly, we believe that Zuma's ANC presidency is likely to pose (limited) downside risks to policy continuity and give rise to less market-friendly measures, in particular with regards to deficit spending and greater trade protection. As a

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