Macroeconomic Forecast Kenya

May 2007 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: We expect inflation to rise to 10.0% by end-year, up from the 5.9% y-o-y rate seen in March, as increased fiscal laxity surrounding the impending polls places upside pressure on prices. Core inflation, meanwhile, which excludes more volatile food and fuel prices should remain under wraps, though will also likely rise marginally by year-end. We have confidence in the ability of the Central Bank to rein in prices, though much will depend on the extent to which elevated oil prices may feed through into the rest of the economy going forward.

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