Robust Oil Production Boosts Growth Prospects

October 2007 | Economic Analysis

It had become difficult to ignore the case for a slight upward revision of our real GDP growth forecast in 2007. We had forecast 10.3% this year, after 11.8% last year, but now expect economic expansion of 11.4% this year, with growth in the oil sector of over 25%. Indeed, oil production has reached 500,000 b/d, up from 364,000 b/d in 2006, due to infrastructure improvements. Additionally, external demand for the country's Dar blend, which had been dogged by processing difficulties due to high acidity levels, has begun to rise, leading to a narrowing of the discount to Brent from US$34/bbl at the start of the year to US$25/bbl by H2.

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