Iraq

February 2008 | Risk Summary

Expectations that the improved security situation would trigger a speedy withdrawal of troop numbers look set to be dashed, after US Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced on 11 February that the security gains would be assessed over the summer before he would sanction more troops to leave the country. The underlying message is that these improvements are not irreversible and that both al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the various Shi'a militias could still plunge the country into another phase of turmoil. This portends a much longer US military commitment to Iraq - itself made possible by reduced US body count levels.

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