Macroeconomic Forecast Iraq

February 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Under the IMF's new standby arrangement (SBA), which will provide some US$744mn in financial assistance to Iraq's government, the 2008 programme will envisage an increase in oil production to 2.2mn b/d - in line with BMI forecasts - and for overall GDP growth to reach 7%, which is slightly below BMI's projection (10.6%). The 2008 budget is based on an oil price of US$57/bbl and exports of 1.7mn b/d. Given a US$14/bbl discrepancy between BMI's forecast 2008 average price and the Iraqi government's, it is clear that the oil revenue windfall likely to reach the Baghdad exchequer - some US$45bn - will far exceed official projections.

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