Trade Regime Restricts L-T Growth

BMI View: We forecast strong real GDP growth of 7.1% in 2008 as oil production returns to normalcy, but see the pace slowing to 5.1% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010 as oil production falls. Private sector development is essential if the country is to grow without oil, but a weak business environment - we particularly highlight a burdensome trade regime - limits the prospects of this.

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