Macroeconomic Forecast Peak Oil

BMI View: The current account surplus, as a percent of GDP, should peak this year at a staggering 32.9%, up from 21.4%, as the price of oil continues to rise. Going forward the size of the surplus should drop fast, as oil production declines and the price of oil begins to fall. We see the surplus falling to 28% of GDP in 2009, 23.2% in 2010, and 15.2% by 2012. The fall in the surplus is driven by declines in the nominal export figure, which we see peaking in 2008 at US$8.3bn and then falling to US$7.1bn by 2012.

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