Violence The Primary Risk

February 2008 | Ratings Update

The relatively low short-term political risk rating of 39.2 primarily emphasises the danger posed over 2008 of an escalation in conflict. The main downside risk is a return to war with Eritrea, an event that would occupy the bulk of Ethiopia's army, severely impact the economy, and exacerbate other conflicts. However, there is also danger posed by the Ogaden National Liberation Front stepping up its campaign, the Oromo Liberation Front renewing its militant operations and the Alliance for the Liberation of Somalia intensifying violence in Somalia. Our core view for the year, however, is the status quo, meaning a combination

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