Gulf Macro Forecasts: A Closer Look

April 2008 | Economic Alert

We are forecasting an aggregate real GDP growth rate of 5.9% this year, both for the Gulf region (including Iran, Iraq and Yemen), and for the GCC. Next year the GCC will maintain this overall rate, while the region as a whole will see its aggregate expansion rate fall to 5.6% - dragged down by a slower rate for all three of the non-GCC states. Growth will be driven primarily by oil-based liquidity - we recently revised our OPEC basket price forecasts up to US$87.50/bbl this year and US$76.50/bbl in 2009 - which will prompt strong consumer and government

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