Macroeconomic Forecast Oil Shortfalls Lead Growth Declines

April 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: We continue to forecast a slow decline in the real GDP growth rate, with growth falling to 4.2% in 2008 from 5.6% in 2007, and down to 3.9% in 2009. The oil sector, which accounts for a large proportion of GDP, has passed its production peak and is expected to decline over the next 20 years, though the currently high prices of oil are encouraging extraction, allowing production levels to hold, rather than fall.

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