Macroeconomic Forecast Uganda

May 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

Despite a slight downward revision for this year, we believe that Uganda's economy will continue to perform strongly over our forecast period, with our real GDP growth projections standing at 7.0% in 2008 (down from our previous forecast of 7.2%) and 7.1% in 2009. The change in our 2008 growth figure is mainly due to the fact that the deteriorating external growth outlook is expected to impact the Ugandan economy. That said, high commodity prices will continue to buoy the country's sales abroad over the course of this year. Beyond 2008, we believe that the external growth outlook is likely to recover, thus providing a boost to Ugandan exports and economic activity alike. Moreover, aside from a possible start in oil production in mid-2009, rising FDI inflows are likely to remain an important driver of growth over the longer term.

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