Macroeconomic Forecast Botswana

June 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Our current interest rate forecast for end-2008 is consistent with the latest policy hike. If monthly inflation trends begin to show signs of further major acceleration another 50bps hike is entirely possible, but our view at present is the odds are slightly against that. The central bank acknowledges that alongside price stability it must also act with regard to economic growth, and as we expect a significant deceleration in real GDP expansion this year, such concerns are increasingly relevant. Meanwhile, the pula has taken little notice of the two recent rate hikes, remaining stable overall against both the greenback and South African rand.

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