Macroeconomic Forecast Botswana

July 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: We have made a number of adjustments to our forecasts, most notably with reference to economic growth, the exchange rate and the external current account. None of these, however, alter the underlying trend outlook of continuing strong economic performance. The most difficult call is timing the peak in inflation. June's rate of 14.5% (y-o-y) was higher than expected, and should July's result be of a similar magnitude, we may need to revise our end-2008 forecast inflation of 9.0% upwards. There is little danger of inflation getting totally out of control and the real economy is proving resilient, but these are uncomfortable times for the central bank.

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