Lebanon

July 2008 | Risk Summary

Under the terms of the Doha deal, the Sunni community is no longer assured of a second election victory, with a president judged by some to be pro-Syrian (and hence pro-opposition), and the memory of the humiliating Hizbullah raid in Beirut in mid-May. The danger is that, disillusioned with their own leadership, which is frequently attacked by the opposition as a puppet of the US, Lebanon's Sunnis turn to violence, and/or the representation of hardline Islamist groups. We stand by our cautious stance, with Lebanon's overall short-term political rating remaining a very low 38.5, putting it above only Iraq in

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