Macroeconomic Forecast Kenya

BMI View: Ongoing trends including heightened political risk, a widening current account deficit and waning investor confidence augur for continued shilling weakness over the remainder of 2008. The unit has suffered in the wake of post-election violent unrest which took place over Q108 in Kenya, having lost 7.8% against the greenback since mid-April and hitting our KES66.50/US$ target (which we have held since late February) on July 9. We expect this trend of weakness to continue, and have set our end-08 target at KES69.00/US$.

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