Lebanon

September 2008 | Risk Summary

News that Syria has amassed 10,000 troops on the Lebanese border underscores our view that the opposition is likely to strengthen its position, if not win outright, in next year's election, increasing the influence of Damascus and Tehran in Lebanese politics. That said, we acknowledge the official Syrian line that the troops are in the area to combat smuggling: a Lebanese army spokesman said 'We asked Damascus for clarification and we were told that the measures were strictly internal and on Syrian territory and that they were in no way directed against Lebanon'. Even if the build-up is political, it

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