Macroeconomic Deterioration Threat To Regime

October 2008 | Economic Analysis

Global oil prices have declined substantially since July and there is a possibility of further major declines to around the US$50/bbl mark. Under these circumstances, Iran's current account could turn from surplus to deficit next year, the government's fiscal outlook would substantially worsen, and Tehran could be forced to embark upon a process of rapprochement with the West.

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