Improved Security Situation But Risks Persist

October 2008 | Political Risk Alert

Over the past several months we have highlighted the improving security situation in Iraq, and are cautiously optimistic for the country's future. However, we have also stressed that certain factors mean that these gains remain fragile. Today's (October 1) transition of responsibility from the US military to the central government for paying the roughly 54,000 Baghdadi Sons of Iraq (Sunni Awakening movement volunteers) will be a key test. If the transition is handled successfully it could provide a considerable boost to Sunni-Shi'a reconciliation efforts. To the north of Baghdad, the thorny issue of the future status of Kirkuk will likely

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