Macroeconomic Forecast Uganda

October 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

The impact of the significant fall in global food and energy prices on consumer price inflation growth is tentatively beginning to be felt, with CPI in September coming in at 15.2% y-o-y, down slightly from the all-time high of 15.8% y-o-y set in the previous month. We maintain our year-end forecast of 11.5%, but note that, despite the collapse of international commodity prices, upside risks will persist with the severe weakening of the shilling - 17.8% ytd by the end of October, to threaten the lows of nearly UGX2,000/US$ seen in 2003.

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