Macroeconomic Forecast Kenya

October 2008 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: The Kenyan shilling has broken below the key psychological level of KES80.00/US$, setting up further losses, in our view. We are medium-term bearish the shilling on account of a discouraging picture for export earnings, as well as high inflation and EM risk aversion. Importantly, we believe the Central Bank of Kenya has stopped intervening to support the currency. Our end-08 target stands at KES82.00/US$.

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