Political Risk

Egypt is once again cracking down on security at the Gaza border (Rafah), after closing it yet again in a move that could well go down badly with the population, which is sympathetic... 2008-08-15

Yesterday's bus bombing in Tripoli is a reminder that the 'stability' supposedly ensuing from the establishment of the government is only skin deep, and could deteriorate substantially... 2008-08-14

BMI View: Relations with Iraq will continue to improve, but the ascendance of Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran will keep Jordan from getting too comfortable.

We continue to see an outside risk that Israel could once again attack neighbouring Lebanon, in an attempt to reduce the threat posed by Hizbullah. Recent signs suggest that hostility... 2008-08-11

Circumstances surrounding the death of top Syrian official General Muhammad Suleiman are unclear to say the least, and we hesitate to draw any firm conclusions at this point, except... 2008-08-04

Reports in Israeli media today give the most hopeful sign yet that a peace deal could be struck with Syria. According to the Jerusalem Post, quoting envoys present at the recent talks... 2008-08-01

Tensions between Hamas and Fatah are rising again, after a bombing which killed five members of the former, as well as a six-year old girl. Hamas blamed its rival Fatah for the attack,... 2008-07-28

The formation of a government is a good sign for Lebanon, and our short-term political risk rating has risen slightly from 38.5 to 41.9 as a result. However, in reality, the new cabinet... 2008-07-25

While Syria is moving along a path of rapprochement with the West, key obstacles remain.

BMI View: The government will remain in power, but will likely use a carrot and stick policy to keep the population on side in these difficult times.