Economy

We are forecasting Morocco's benchmark lending rate to fall back to 3.25% in 2009. The central bank raised rates to 3.50% in October due to inflation fears, but with prices pressures... 2008-11-12

At the time of writing, the OPEC Basket was trading at just US$52.24/bbl, just over four months after its July peak of US$140.73/bbl in early July. Although the government has said... 2008-11-12

Libya's trade surplus will fall sharply in 2009 due to lower oil prices (we are forecasting the OPEC Basket to average 30% lower in 2009 than 2008, at US$71.50/bbl). The trade surplus... 2008-11-12

We forecast the budget deficit to narrow to 2.7% of GDP in 2009, from a projected 3.8% in 2008. This is mainly due to a slowdown in expenditure growth. State finances have been hit... 2008-11-12

Signs of sluggish economic growth are already appearing in the Tunisian economy. According to official figures, industrial production declined by 8.9% m-o-m in August. This may have... 2008-10-24

FDI inflows have remained strong so far in 2008, but foreign investment is likely to be less forthcoming in 2009, due to slower growth and tighter liquidity in Europe and the Gulf... 2008-10-24

After appreciating steadily throughout 2008, Algeria's monetary authorities finally appear to be allowing the unit to respond to dollar strength. While the latter has appreciated... 2008-10-23

We have revisited our GDP growth forecasts for Libya, and although it remains in a strong position economically, we believe that no country will be completely immune from current... 2008-10-23

While in real terms, we are forecasting Morocco's net exports position to deteriorate in 2009, the current account will be afforded some respite by falling food and energy prices.... 2008-10-23

Despite record oil prices, Algerian growth is unlikely to have lived up to expectations in 2008, due to supply side problems in the hydrocarbons industry. However, an expansion in... 2008-10-21