Macroeconomic Forecast Algeria

Oil prices are now more than US$30.0/bbl off their July highs, trading at US$110.51/bbl by the time of writing. Further falls pose obvious downside risks to our balance of payments forecasts for Algeria. We are currently forecasting a current account surplus equal to 37.5% of GDP in 2008. Given the overwhelming dominance of hydrocarbons in Algeria's export basket, an average oil price of US$100.00/bbl this year, would see the surplus drop to 32.9% (all other things being equal).

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