Macroeconomic Forecast Mozambique

The overall macroeconomic climate remains consistent with our current core scenario. Real GDP growth came in at 6.5% according to government sources, above our forecast of 5.8%. Despite the weakness in global aluminium prices output has not suffered in the same was as copper has in neighbouring Zambia. Furthermore, ongoing capital investment in coal and power should support growth of up to 4.2% in 2009. Although still encouraging, our forecast is below the government's and the IMF's projections, of 7.0% and 5.5% respectively, given the vulnerability of the mining sector.

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