Macroeconomic Forecast Syria

Inflation has come down rapidly in Syria, dropping from 15.1% y-o-y at the end of 2008 to 5.0% by March 2009. We are forecasting further falls as the year wears on, to a year-end rate of around 3.0% y-o-y. Drought and local food shortages do pose upside risks to this forecast, although the cost of imported food should be lower than last year due to weaker prices of soft commodities on the global market.

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