Macroeconomic Forecast Egypt

We are forecasting a small-scale 'double dip' in real GDP from 4.7% y-o-y growth in FY2008/09 to 3.5% in FY2009/10, and then again from 5.3% in FY2010/11 to 4.8% in FY2011/12. We attribute the first dip to an expected lag effect of the overall economic downturn on the consumer and the ensuing bounce to government stimulus. We project a subsequent fall in growth as a result of fiscal retrenchment and lacklustre private sector performance. Thereafter, we see the economy returning almost to trend, averaging 5.3% over 2011-2014.

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