Risks Of Devaluation Growing

The Iranian rial is fundamentally overvalued. As a result, we believe that there are significant risks of a one-time, sharp devaluation of the unit at some point over the coming years. That said, predicting the timing of such a move is not possible, and for the purposes of our macroeconomic modelling, our core scenario is for the rial to steadily weaken against the dollar over the coming years.

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