Macroeconomic Forecast Uganda

Private consumption has long been the backbone of the Ugandan economy, and was one of the major factors preventing it from falling into a deeper downturn at a time of globally contracting output in 2009. We expect this trend to be upheld in the current fiscal year, with private consumption growth forecast at 7.8% y-o-y in real terms. To be sure, this is a slowdown from 10.5% recorded in FY2008/09, but it is still sufficient to add 5.8pp to our headline growth forecast of 7.1%.

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