Sunni Enfranchisement To Boost Stability

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is well positioned to retain his position following national parliamentary elections that will take place on March 7. Although his State of Law coalition is unlikely to secure a majority of seats in the next parliament, it could well end up as the largest bloc, thus putting Maliki in a commanding position when the post-election horse trading begins. We caution that this post-election negotiating is liable to be a fairly long drawn-out process and as such, it may take several weeks (or possibly months) before the composition of the next government is clear.

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