Macroeconomic Forecast Yemen

The Central Bank of Yemen's foreign reserves dropped 14.2% y-o-y in 2009, to US$7.0bn. The recent onset of LNG exports coupled with higher oil prices - we are forecasting the OPEC Basket to average US$83/bbl in 2010 - means that the current account deficit should narrow (to a forecast 1.5% of GDP). As a result of the improving external position, we see reserves increasing slightly this year, to US$7.1bn, equivalent to a healthy 8.8 months of import cover.

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