Uganda

Having tested and briefly exceeded its all-time low of UGX2,300/US$, the Ugandan shilling appears to have stabilised around the UGX2,250/US$ mark. Its trajectory over the past six months has been closely tied to that of the euro; perceptions of a strengthening US dollar (versus the euro) had led many commercial banks to increase their purchases of greenbacks. Thus with the stabilisation of the euro observed in mid-June, the shilling has also found a measure of support. We maintain our (revised) end-2010 forecast of UGX2,000/US$.

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