Macroeconomic Forecast Madagascar

We expect Madagascar to struggle through 2010, its economy shrinking by 1.5% in terms of real GDP. Although we forecast that the country will return to a positive growth of 1.4% in 2011 and will gather momentum from there, we see the political uncertainty surrounding the Rajoelina regime stunting growth until 2013. Much needed foreign investment and foreign aid for development will continue to be withheld while Rajoelina operates outside the constitution, which is likely to endure throughout his reign.

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