Macroeconomic Forecast Algeria

We expect total external debt to expand throughout 2010. This is primarily based on a three times larger long term debt compared to the previous year, leading to doubling the debt's share to GDP in 2010. Despite the fact that revenues from hydrocarbons will increase, so will spending, driving the government to finance fiscal deficits more. Going forward, in the next five years the public and publically guaranteed external debt, which was the main driver of headline external debt, will stabilize around US$8.7bn. Having said that, this only represents 5.4% of GDP, with the massive y-o-y change reflecting only low base effects.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: