Macroeconomic Forecast Zambia

We expect Zambia's trade surplus to widen in 2010 as billions of US dollars of investment in copper mines from the previous five years to begin to bear fruit. In H110, several of the largest mining firms operating in Zambia reported huge increases in copper production. Equinox, for example, reported a 59% y-o-y increase. Even after factoring in a potential slowdown in China's construction industry, the primary consumer of Zambian copper, we forecast that copper production will reach 723,460 metric tonnes by the end of 2010, a 4.0% increase from 2009.

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