Political Risk

We forecast unemployment to fall slowly to around 8% by 2011. However, failure to improve the education system could constrain job creation, presenting risks to the Kingdom's future... 2008-06-20

Widespread strike action poses a downside risk to our political risk ratings, although our core scenario is for negotiations between the government and unions to continue, avoiding... 2008-06-03

As the official launch of the Union for the Mediterranean draws closer, we reiterate our view that the Arab-Israeli conflict will hinder any meaningful political integration, although... 2008-05-29

We have downgraded our short-term political risk ratings in light of the current opacity surrounding potential changes to the Libyan cabinet system. The possibility of major upheaval... 2008-05-15

Recent comments from Algeria's energy minister suggest little chance of a compromise on the cut in gas subsidies demanded by the WTO in exchange for membership. With inflation rising... 2008-05-12

The assessment by a UN mediator that Western Saharan independence is unrealistic lends weight to Morocco's position in ongoing negotiations, although a final accord still looks some... 2008-04-25

The elimination of US$4.5bn of Soviet-era debt and the signing of numerous economic agreements presages a strengthening of ties between Libya and Russia. While Qadhafi is still committed... 2008-04-22

A recent spat with Russia over arms sales reveals Algeria's growing assertiveness on the international scene. Although we do not anticipate any long lasting damage to Russian relations,... 2008-04-07

Government approval of a bill that allows for greater parliamentary oversight is a step in the right direction, although it remains to be seen how quickly it will be implemented and... 2008-03-31

Plans to overhaul Libya's system of government by abolishing most of its ministries have created confusion and could lead to a major downward revision of our political risk ratings.