Political Risk

President Ben Ali’s decisive election victory in October seems unlikely to fool anyone. BMI View: The US, a key ally, is increasingly unhappy that Tunisia’s leadership... 2004-11-05

The 2005 budget has finally been approved, targeting a fiscal deficit of 3.2%. BMI View: This is based on a relatively optimistic oil price assumption of US$35/b, and the potential... 2004-11-05

After signs of a thaw in August, relations with Morocco have become tense again as the Western Saharan issue returns to the top of the political agenda. BMI View: This will dismay... 2004-11-01

Washington has removed the last barriers preventing US companies doing business in Libya. BMI View: Expect strong interest from US corporates in Libya, given the country’s... 2004-10-08

Tunisia is looking to play a role in the Middle East peace process, having established a dialogue with Israel in the past year. BMI View: Tunis has the credibility to play a role... 2004-10-08

South Africa has established diplomatic ties with the Saharan Arab Democratic Republic, which claims to govern the disputed territory of Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. ... 2004-10-08

The chief of staff of the army has resigned after 11 years in power. BMI View: This poses major upside risks to the process of national reconciliation, although it is too early... 2004-09-07

The state television service will begin broadcasts in the Berber language of Tamazight. BMI View: A promising gesture that will go some way to meeting Berber demands.

The Bush administration is unwilling to offer a further loosening of sanctions on Libya ahead of the presidential election. BMI View: The final lifting of sanctions may have to... 2004-09-07

A key militant group has carried out two bomb attacks against electricity sector targets. BMI View: As the group’s numbers decline, it is increasingly likely to target... 2004-08-03