Political Risk

Likud has rejected the US-backed Gaza pull-out plan. BMI View: Sharon’s political career is looking increasingly precarious, but we expect him to continue to pursue the... 2004-05-12

A violent attack on the Mazze district of Damascus has not been followed by a clear account by the government of who the assailants were. BMI View: Although a number of embassies... 2004-05-12

Despite an overwhelming majority in favour of reunification in Turkish Northern Cyprus, Greek Cypriots voted against the 'Annan' plan and, consequently Southern Cyprus entered the... 2004-05-04

The division of Cyprus in 1974 has long cast a pall over Turkish and Greek relations. While past efforts at a negotiated settlement have stalled – mainly due to the intransigence... 2004-04-08

As Israel prepares to withdraw from Gaza, attacks on the strip by the IDF have intensified. BMI View: Although the assassination of the leader of Hamas in late March represents an... 2004-04-07

Israel’s assassination of Hamas spiritual leader Sheikh Yassin has prompted condemnation from President Hosni Mubarak, who has cancelled the planned visit of a parliamentary... 2004-04-05

The Gaza withdrawal is looking imminent. BMI View: However, Israel will continue to patrol the area by air and at entry

International pressure to improve human rights is set to increase over the forecast period. BMI View: A recent change in the press law is a positive step, though considerable downside... 2004-03-16

President Hosni Mubarak has recently announced a change in the media law, which has been welcomed by journalists and intellectuals, many of whom see it as a signal that remaining... 2004-03-05

One of the central aims of the newly created Ministry of Political Development is to reduce the number but increase the size of political parties in the country. BMI View: There are... 2004-02-19