Political Risk

We reiterate our view that the threat of a return to large-scale insurgency in Algeria is low. However, the recent step-up in terrorist attacks poses clear threats to the business... 2008-08-27

In a surprise move, Seif al-Islam Qadhafi has announced his withdrawal from Libyan political life. Islam, the son of leader Muammar Qadhafi, holds no official title but has been a... 2008-08-21

Despite a change of leadership, we do not expect any major shift in policy direction from Morocco's main Islamist party, the PJD. Most importantly, the party remains committed to... 2008-07-24

The International Criminal Court (ICC)'s indictment of Sudan's president for alleged war crimes offers Libya an opportunity to wield its regional influence. Despite its rapprochement... 2008-07-23

Algeria's position as a key supplier of energy to Europe is affording it growing political influence. Recent diplomatic efforts by the EU - led by Germany and France - are likely... 2008-07-22

The return of Ahmed Ouyahia to the post of prime minister suggests an attempt by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to neutralise any potential opponents before next year's presidential... 2008-06-25

A deal with Ukraine should secure Libya's future wheat supplies, reducing its exposure to global food shortages. In return, Ukraine will regain access to oil concessions.

Despite condemnation from human rights groups, we see little prospect for an improvement in political freedoms in the near future. The Tunisian government sees its political stability... 2008-06-25

We forecast unemployment to fall slowly to around 8% by 2011. However, failure to improve the education system could constrain job creation, presenting risks to the Kingdom's future... 2008-06-20

Widespread strike action poses a downside risk to our political risk ratings, although our core scenario is for negotiations between the government and unions to continue, avoiding... 2008-06-03