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Political Risk

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Algeria

We reiterate our view that the threat of a return to large-scale insurgency in Algeria is low. However, the recent step-up in terrorist attacks poses clear threats to the business... 2008-08-27


Libya

In a surprise move, Seif al-Islam Qadhafi has announced his withdrawal from Libyan political life. Islam, the son of leader Muammar Qadhafi, holds no official title but has been a... 2008-08-21


Morocco

Despite a change of leadership, we do not expect any major shift in policy direction from Morocco's main Islamist party, the PJD. Most importantly, the party remains committed to... 2008-07-24


Libya

The International Criminal Court (ICC)'s indictment of Sudan's president for alleged war crimes offers Libya an opportunity to wield its regional influence. Despite its rapprochement... 2008-07-23


Algeria

Algeria's position as a key supplier of energy to Europe is affording it growing political influence. Recent diplomatic efforts by the EU - led by Germany and France - are likely... 2008-07-22


Algeria

The return of Ahmed Ouyahia to the post of prime minister suggests an attempt by President Abdelaziz Bouteflika to neutralise any potential opponents before next year's presidential... 2008-06-25


Libya

A deal with Ukraine should secure Libya's future wheat supplies, reducing its exposure to global food shortages. In return, Ukraine will regain access to oil concessions.

2008-06-25

Tunisia

Despite condemnation from human rights groups, we see little prospect for an improvement in political freedoms in the near future. The Tunisian government sees its political stability... 2008-06-25


Morocco

We forecast unemployment to fall slowly to around 8% by 2011. However, failure to improve the education system could constrain job creation, presenting risks to the Kingdom's future... 2008-06-20


Morocco

Widespread strike action poses a downside risk to our political risk ratings, although our core scenario is for negotiations between the government and unions to continue, avoiding... 2008-06-03

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