Yemen

BMI View: An outbreak of protests in the south could presage worsening civil conflict, as secessionist forces challenge the authority of President Ali Abdullah

BMI View: The stark decline in oil production is unlikely to be fully mitigated by the Q3 startup of LNG exports, leaving the economy in a subdued

BMI View: Yemen's weak revenue outlook will be compounded by rigidities in its expenditure.

Yemen's external position is pretty bleak, largely due to the country's declining oil industry. The onset of LNG production will provide a boost, but structural current account deficits... 2009-05-22

Recent developments in Yemen have drawn attention to the security challenges facing the central government, but BMI believes that any suggestions of an impending break up of the country... 2009-05-06

The fiscal situation will worsen as oil prices remain subdued and output declines. Even the advent of LNG production will not prevent massive fiscal deficits over the course of the... 2009-03-18

April's parliamentary elections have been delayed by two years, as a result of a compromise deal, to allow for a review of the entire electoral process. In the long-term, this may... 2009-03-18

The return of Yemeni Guantanamo prisoners could galvanise the country's Islamist movement.

The promise of LNG revenues will help to offset the long term decline of the oil sector and will mean that Yemen will avoid falling into recession this year.

We forecast real GDP growth to slow to 2.8% in 2009, down from an estimated 3.7% in 2008. Domestic oil production has been in long-term decline; this trend is set to continue. Although... 2009-02-27