Political Risk

Tensions between Hamas and Fatah are rising again, after a bombing which killed five members of the former, as well as a six-year old girl. Hamas blamed its rival Fatah for the attack,... 2008-07-28

The formation of a government is a good sign for Lebanon, and our short-term political risk rating has risen slightly from 38.5 to 41.9 as a result. However, in reality, the new cabinet... 2008-07-25

While Syria is moving along a path of rapprochement with the West, key obstacles remain.

BMI View: The government will remain in power, but will likely use a carrot and stick policy to keep the population on side in these difficult times.

BMI View: Egypt will likely continue to seek to avoid opening the Rafah border crossing for any prolonged period of time, particularly as long as Hamas remains in power. However,... 2008-07-11

The June 5 decision by Turkey's constitutional court to overturn a government initiative to allow the wearing of headscarves on university campuses supports our view that the ruling... 2008-06-24

BMI View: The Agrium issue is a key test of the government's priorities, but will have negative implications whatever the outcome. The best news for the business environment would... 2008-06-23

The Israeli-Hamas peace deal should bring a fragile peace to the territory, at least in the short term. The deal strengthens Hamas politically, but we do not rule out the possibility... 2008-06-18

BMI View: We think Tzipi Livni will succeed Olmert as leader of the Kadima party. However, calling early elections would be a risky strategy, which could benefit Binyamin Netanyahu... 2008-06-04

BMI View: We have long been highlighting the possibility of a deal between Israel and Syria, and recent developments underscore this view, albeit with the caveat that negotiations... 2008-06-04